Second Quarter 2023: Southern Georgian Bay Real Estate Update

The Spring market is starting to come alive in Southern Georgian Bay. As predicted, it has been delayed by uncertainty in the market and a lack of inventory. When compared year over year most significant indicators are down. Volume and price most obviously. But that does not tell the whole story. Anecdotally, May and June inventory have come on and our daily indicators are showing significant increases in volume over previous months.

Our feeling is that the market started more slowly than would be typical as people looked to “time the market”. Our data shows quite clearly now that those looking to see the bottom have missed their opportunity. Prices seem to have bottomed out in December of last year with steady increases in average sale prices since then. We are always leery of looking at data over very short time periods, but it seems clear now that the trend line on prices is on the upswing.

While the recent Bank of Canada increase was not anticipated, we are seeing people coming back into the market in ever-increasing numbers. So much so that we are changing our forecast for flat growth in our market in 2023. We now anticipate that prices will increase in the Greater Golden Horseshoe by 7% or more by the end of the year.

It seems that we are returning to a pre-pandemic market. Supply is still tight. Governments at all levels are trying to change the narrative, but supply takes time, and we feel that we are looking at a protracted period of general price increases in real estate in our area for the foreseeable future. While some people are returning to their offices, the amenity migration that fuelled the pandemic market in our area does not immediately seem to be reversing. Families have come to love the lifestyle of Southern Georgian Bay and are loath to give it up.